A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
